Steve Kornacki has a really good piece...

...in Salon on the federal government shutdown of 1995-96. Many on the right are talking about pulling a similar stunt in 2011 if the Republicans gain a majority in the House in November. Erick Erickson of RedState.com, for example, said recently that "I’m almost giddy thinking about a government shutdown next year. I cannot wait!"

There's only one problem with this scheme -- it's a political loser. As Kornacki explains:

From the instant the shutdown [in'95] began that November, the public sided overwhelmingly with the president, whose job approval ratings instantly recovered to levels not seen since the early days of his presidency. Long derided as slippery and spineless, Clinton portrayed his veto as an act of principle and responsible leadership, while the Republicans were made to look like immature ideological zealots.
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But there really is good reason to believe that a 2011 shutdown would backfire against Republicans just like the '95 one did. For one thing, the setup is -- or would be -- awfully similar: a Republican majority in the House with a large, ideologically pure freshman class at its heart that is convinced its midterm election triumph marked a decisive, permanent rejection of a Democratic president and his philosophy.

But here's the most important part (my emphasis):

But the logic of the electorate tends to be more contradictory than coherent. Sure, voters hate the idea of deficits and love the notion of a balanced budget. But they also like Medicare, which Gingrich’s GOP targeted for cuts in its plan, and are made uncomfortable by anything that seems radical -- like a government shutdown, even if it doesn't personally affect their lives.

The shutdown of '95 is also personally important for me, because it was one of the first moments when I realized that a libertarian utopia was just that -- a utopia. In other words, I learned that the American people wanted the things that government could do for them, regardless of what I -- or anyone else -- thought.

(Another seminal moment for me was reading David Stockman's book, The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed, in which he argued essentially the same thing: if the American people want big government, they should at least have to pay for it.)

And the same is true for the tea partiers today. No matter how much they rant about "big government" and extol the virtues of "liberty," polls show that they really, really like Social Security, Medicare and public schools. (They just don't want to have to pay for them.)

So go ahead, GOP, shut down the federal government. My 80-something, Glenn Beck-watching neighbor will be up in arms when his Social Security checks are late and Medicare doesn't pay his doctor bills. He'll exchange that Mark Kirk lawn sign of his for an Obama one real quick.