Sentiment on the economy...

...is horrible. Jobless claims were up again this morning, stock market averages are down for the year and the Fed is making ominous noises. (A contrarian might say these are signs of a near-term bottom.)

But if things don't turn around soon, Republicans could re-take both houses of Congress. If the midterms were held tomorrow, we could see one of those "wave" elections that political scientists keep talking about, like in 1994 or 2006.

The economy has about two and a half months to change the public's sour mood. If not, tea partiers like Sharron Angle, Rand Paul and Ken Buck could get elected to the United States Senate. Democrats could go down to defeat in such blue states as Washington, California, Wisconsin, Illinois and even Connecticut.

And who do you suppose would be the front-runner for the GOP nomination in 2012? I'd say a certain half-term governor from Alaska.