...mentioned by Jonathan Alter on MTP Daily as a possible running mate for Donald Trump. Now I hear Dan Senor predict Corker on With All Due Respect. (These are two people worth listening to.)
So where is the Tennessee senator in the betting markets? Well, on Paddy Power he's in fifth place at 9/1 odds:
Newt Gingrich, 13/8
Scott Brown, 7/2
Joni Ernst, 6/1
John Kasich, 8/1
Bob Corker, 9/1
I'm not sure if Sen. Corker would want the job or not -- are you kidding? He'd grab it with both hands! -- but I think the Republican establishment is desperate to have one of their own on the ticket to hopefully "influence" the Donald in the right direction. Kasich clearly doesn't want it, and the first three on the list don't impress me as serious candidates. (Come on, Newt Gingrich?) After Corker, you have to go all the way down to Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, at 25/1 odds, to find someone else that's credible.
Right now it looks as though Corker may turn out to be the guy asked to "take one for the team."
P. S. I also heard Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana mentioned. He's at 33/1 odds.
But he is not deserving of conservative support in the caucuses and primaries. Trump is a philosophically unmoored political opportunist who would trash the broad conservative ideological consensus within the GOP in favor of a free-floating populism with strong-man overtones.
Whoa. But even on immigration, Trump often makes no sense and can’t be relied upon.
In fact,
This plan wouldn’t survive its first contact with reality.
But is he qualified? Indeed, Trump’s politics are those of an averagely well-informed businessman: Washington is full of problems; I am a problem-solver; let me at them. But if you have no familiarity with the relevant details and the levers of power, and no clear principles to guide you, you will, like most tenderfeet, get rolled.
What about his experience? The burdens and intricacies of leadership are special; experience in other fields is not transferable. Trump’s record as a businessman is hardly a recommendation for the highest office in the land.
Finally,
We sympathize with many of the complaints of Trump supporters about the GOP, but that doesn’t make the mogul any less flawed a vessel for them. Some conservatives have made it their business to make excuses for Trump and duly get pats on the head from him. Count us out. Donald Trump is a menace to American conservatism who would take the work of generations and trample it underfoot in behalf of a populism as heedless and crude as the Donald himself.
Wow! I guess they didn't like him.
In a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, however, Trump has the support of eighty-five percent of Republicans.
...by about five points in February. Yeah, you're probably thinking, So, what? The most recent polls show the race in a dead heat.
Well, according to Sam Wang,* a professor at Princeton (my emphasis):
Amusingly, national polls won’t reach their February levels of accuracy until August. The Clinton-Trump margin in February was Clinton +5.0%. So how about if we just use that until after the conventions. Can you wait?
What's more, Professor Wang thinks by November it will be Clinton +6.5%.
* Who the heck is Sam Wang? He's the guy who pretty much got it perfect in 2012.
...that, Hey, I think this Trump guy can win -- I mean, Hillary's negatives are so high! -- I always say, ask any Hispanic or African American what they think of the Donald. And, if it's in person, I get a blank stare in response; if it's over the phone I get crickets. And I always laugh to myself: the person I'm talking to probably doesn't know or even come into contact with any blacks or Hispanics.
Now, I don't want to sound too smug or "worldly" (after all, I am admittedly a Boring Old White Guy), because I've spent the vast majority of my life surrounded by other white people, but just try my little experiment some time.
In my wife's non-profit we have at least one young man who grew up in both the United States and Mexico (I'm sure Spanish is his first language) and several African Americans. I also talked to some of the protesters at the Trump rally at UIC, above, a few weeks ago. Heck, I ask the question every chance I get.
And the response is usually a non-verbal look that suggests hatred. I know you're never supposed to make comparisons with Nazi Germany, but it's the kind of look I imagine you'd get if you asked a Jew what they thought of Hitler.
I'm reminded of all this by a piece in the New York Times this morning, "Mexico Prepares to Counter ‘the Trump Emergency’" (my emphasis):
[Mexican] President Enrique Peña Nieto likened the candidate’s language to that of Hitler and Mussolini in an interview with Mexico’s Excelsior newspaper. And he recently shuffled his diplomatic corps in the United States, replacing Mexico’s ambassador to Washington and installing new consuls general around the country, in part to strengthen his administration’s response to the rise of Mr. Trump and what it reflects about American sentiment toward Mexico. ___ The two countries are now enjoying one of the more harmonious periods in a turbulent history. But many in Mexico fear that the friendship would rupture should Mr. Trump win the election and follow through on his threats to undo the North American Free Trade Agreement, force Mexico to pay for the construction of a wall between the countries by interrupting remittances and deport the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States, about half of whom are Mexican. ___ Mexican critics of Mr. Trump say he has already damaged the image of their country and of the Mexican people with his espousal of views that many regard as xenophobic. At a rally to kick off his campaign in June, the Republican candidate suggested that many Mexican immigrants were drug traffickers and rapists. ___
Instead, most of the Mexican agitation against Mr. Trump has come from the general public. At the beginning of his campaign, many Mexicans viewed Mr. Trump with a mixture of alarm and amusement. But the amusement has mostly fallen away. “Why should we worry?” Mr. Krauze asked, rhetorically. “I couldn’t think of a reason not to worry, no?” In the fall, Mr. Krauze and Carmelo Mesa-Lago, an emeritus professor of economics and Latin American studies at the University of Pittsburgh, drafted a letter denouncing Mr. Trump’s campaign. Sixty-seven prominent Latinos — academics, scientists, writers and filmmakers in the United States, Spain and Latin America — signed it. “His hate speech appeals to lower passions like xenophobia, machismo, political intolerance and religious dogmatism,” the letter said. In recent months, Mr. Castañeda has been pushing a pro-Mexico social media campaign with the hashtag #ImProudToBeMexican. Aiming at an American, English-speaking audience, he has uploaded videos to Facebook and a campaign website extolling the diversity of the Mexican diaspora and its contributions to the United States. Explaining the American focus of this lobby, he said: “I don’t want to convince Mexicans how nasty Trump is, because everyone knows that. That’s a done deal.”
I've heard some people say that blacks and Hispanics won't turn out this year in the numbers we've come to expect, partly because President Obama won't be on the ballot. But, I'm telling you, from the people I've talked to (and, admittedly, it's not exactly a scientific sampling), they'll turn out. They'll turn out in huge numbers. Just watch.
That's what the headline in The Daily Beast said linking to a new ABC/Washington Postpoll showing the Donald leading Hillary, 46 to 44 percent.
Oh, no!
But wait. All the betting markets still show Mrs. Clinton with a sizable lead over Trump. So, what? you're probably thinking. Well, I follow this stuff more than any normal person should. And in my experience the betting markets are far more reliable than the polls. Not perfect, but better. While polls go up and down with every piece of news, gaffe, etc. the bookies seem to keep their heads when all about them are losing theirs.
But if you're really worried about Donald Trump becoming president of the United States -- and who wouldn't be? After all, this is serious! -- and you find, more and more, that otherwise sensible people you know are being tempted to vote for what they consider to be the "lesser of two evils," remind them of what Mitt Romney said back in May (all emphasis mine):
Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud. His promises are as worthless as a degree from Trump University. He's playing the American public for suckers: He gets a free ride to the White House and all we get is a lousy hat.
I don't find myself agreeing with Mr. Romney too often, but he was spot-on about Trump. And if you know a Republican-leaning person who's warming to the Donald you may want to quote Romney:
But wait, you say, isn't he a huge business success that knows what he's talking about? No he isn't. His bankruptcies have crushed small businesses and the men and women who worked for them. He inherited his business, he didn't create it. And what ever happened to Trump Airlines? How about Trump University? And then there's Trump Magazine and Trump Vodka and Trump Steaks, and Trump Mortgage? A business genius he is not.
Remember, if Trump had just invested his inheritance in index funds he'd be far wealthier today. Think about that: the Donald would have been better off doing crossword puzzles all day than in investing in real estate these last several decades.* I am far from the first to conclude that Donald Trump lacks the temperament to be president. After all, this is an individual who mocked a disabled reporter, who attributed a reporter's questions to her menstrual cycle, who mocked a brilliant rival who happened to be a woman due to her appearance, who bragged about his marital affairs, and who laces his public speeches with vulgarity. ___ Dishonesty is Trump's hallmark: He claimed that he had spoken clearly and boldly against going into Iraq. Wrong, he spoke in favor of invading Iraq. He said he saw thousands of Muslims in New Jersey celebrating 9/11. Wrong, he saw no such thing. He imagined it. His is not the temperament of a stable, thoughtful leader. His imagination must not be married to real power. ___
We will only really know if he is the real deal or a phony if he releases his tax returns and the tape of his interview with the New York Times. I predict that there are more bombshells in his tax returns. I predict that he doesn't give much if anything to the disabled and to our veterans. I predict that he told the New York Times that his immigration talk is just that: talk. And I predict that despite his promise to do so, first made over a year ago, he will never ever release his tax returns. Never. Not the returns under audit, not even the returns that are no longer being audited. He has too much to hide. Nor will he authorize the Times to release the tapes. If I'm right, you will have all the proof you need to know that Donald Trump is a phony. ___ Mr. Trump is directing our anger for less than noble purposes. He creates scapegoats of Muslims and Mexican immigrants, he calls for the use of torture and for killing the innocent children and family members of terrorists. He cheers assaults on protesters. He applauds the prospect of twisting the Constitution to limit first amendment freedom of the press. This is the very brand of anger that has led other nations into the abyss.
Romney says this is a "Time for Choosing." And he's right. You probably won't get too many chances in your life to Do The Right Thing on a national scale. This is probably the time. If Trump gets elected (and I still think he won't), and you voted for him, you'll have to look yourself in the mirror for the rest of your life with that knowledge. You'll have to say that when it was your time to "answer the bell" you failed.
Don't do it; vote for the one person who is truly qualified to be the Leader of the Free World. You don't have to "like" her; this isn't about having a beer with someone. It's about electing a president. And it's probably the most important thing you'll ever do in your life. Don't blow it.
* To be fair, here's a different take on the subject. (But, as Mr. Romney pointed out, without Trump's tax returns we'll never know what he's really worth.)
...Rubber Soul album begat the Beach Boys' Pet Sounds, the latter begat the Beatles' Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band,which in turn begat SMiLE, the Beach Boys album which was begun in 1966 but not released in its entirety until 2011.
While most musical "experts" seem to agree that SMiLE was the finest work by Brian Wilson and the Beach Boys, I find myself, to paraphrase Paul Ryan, just "not there" yet. But that's okay; I remember how Pet Sounds was an acquired taste back when I discovered it sometime in the mid-1970s. (That's probably considered their second-best album. While I've come to like it, I still prefer the earlier stuff about girls, surfing and cars. Sue me.)
But one song that's really catchy from SMiLE is "Heroes and Villains." Originally released as a single in 1967, the song had "an innumerable amount of alternate edits," according to Wikipedia.
The Beach Boys did at least 20 recording sessions for this song over a period of several months, as Brian Wilson was very particular about it. Sections known as "Cantina Scene" and "Bicycle Rider" were dropped, although The Beach Boys often included them in live performances of the song.
What the heck is it about? Good question.
Written in collaboration with Van Dyke Parks, Wilson has called SMiLE "a teenage symphony to God."
It is generally acknowledged that Wilson and Parks intended "SMiLE" to be explicitly American in style and subject, a conscious reaction to the overwhelming British dominance of popular music at the time. It was conceived as a musical journey across America from east to west, beginning at Plymouth Rock and ending in Hawaii, traversing some of the great themes of modern American history and culture including the impact of white settlement on native Americans, the influence of the Spanish, the Wild West and the opening up of the country by railroad and highway. Some historical events touched upon range from Manifest destiny, American imperialism, westward expansion, the Great Chicago Fire, and the Industrial Revolution. When Wilson first played the melody [of "Heroes and Villains"] to him, Parks devised the opening line on the spot, modeling its lyrics in the style of Marty Robbins' "El Paso." Wilson credits Parks with the title, while Parks credits Wilson, explaining: "I think he made that up. I think it was a great title, and he suggested it. To me, 'Heroes And Villains' sounds like a ballad out of the Southwest. That’s what it was intended to be—as good as any of those—and, really, to be a ballad. This Spanish and Indian fascination is a big chapter in Californian history, and that’s what it’s supposed to be—historically reflective, to reflect this place. I think it did it."
And yet:
Though the lyrics are distinctly Western with some allusions to the American Indian genocides, former wife Marilyn Wilson claimed that Brian meant the "heroes" and "villains" to represent the ones in his life.
Either way, it's a good tune.
P. S. In my final semester of college I had to turn in a ten-page term paper on the last Friday of some class I was taking. We also had to take the final exam that same day and the grades needed to be turned in to the registrar's office by the following Monday. I remember thinking at the time that there was no way the professor could possibly read all those papers and correct all those finals (which were essays in blue books) in one weekend. So I decided to have a little fun and wrote smack-dab in the middle of my paper, "I can't believe you're actually reading this." He circled it in red.
And the moral of the story is, I wonder if anyone is actually reading any of these recent posts on the Beach Boys. If so, thanks for indulging me.
...cartoon of the day.
