Friday, November 2, 2012

Bill Dees, who co-wrote...

...the 1964 hit "Oh, Pretty Woman" with Roy Orbison, died at age 73.

I'm not much of a board game...

...player, but I have played Risk! once or twice. I had to have it explained to me each time (of course), and I understood the strategy to be: form alliances and then screw your allies. So, after forming an alliance in the opening stages of my first game, I promptly turned on my partner at the first opportunity. When he protested to me, "What the heck are you doing?," I answered (honestly) "But I thought that's how the game was played!"

Why do I bring this up? Now that we're in the waning days of the 2012 campaign, it's looking more and more like President Obama is going to be reelected. (Chris Matthews said yesterday that Mayor Michael Bloomberg would not be endorsing the president this late in the game unless he felt pretty confident that he was going to win. In other words, it was as good an indicator as any of what we can expect next Tuesday.)

So allow me a (pre-) post-mortem on the Romney campaign, or at least one aspect of it. And that's the mystery (to me) of how such an exemplary human being as Mitt Romney could run such a dishonest and dishonorable campaign for president.

Consider the private Mitt Romney: excellent student (no, crazy excellent student) who earned an MBA and a law degree from Harvard simultaneously; started Bain Capital and made zillions for himself and his investors; active in his church; and married to a beautiful woman with five handsome and successful sons. I want to be that guy!

(Romney reminds me of one of my neighbors who, from all appearances, seems to have a great marriage; six nice kids; a lucrative job; and has been active in his church and the community. I used to tell my wife, "He's Superman!")

Given that the private Mitt Romney is such an admirable guy, why (oh why) has the public Mitt Romney been such a cynical candidate? (Sometimes I think he'd make even Richard Nixon blush!) And it's not just 2012; he was a shameless flip-flopper back in 2008. (And disliked, I've read, by all his Republican primary opponents: John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee. That should tell you something.) And, Romney has been pretty much the same guy since he first ran for public office way back in 1994: a shape-shifter willing to say and do anything -- no matter how disingenuous -- to get elected.

So how do you square the private Mitt Romney -- a man of unimpeachable character and integrity --with the public Mitt Romney, who's utterly lacking in both? (One of my colleagues said that the private Romney might not be all that we have been led to believe: "Mike, a leopard doesn't change his spots.")

I, however, have a different take (as of this morning, at least). And that brings me back to the game of Risk! I suspect that the public Mitt Romney acts the way he does because he thinks that's how the game of politics is played. He probably is a good man in private life.

And, as of next Wednesday, Mitt Romney can go back to being a good man ... in private life.

Some of the games I won't...

...be attending this weekend (but would really, really like to) will be:

8A 

Conant at Maine South
Can the 7-3 Cougars upset the Hawks in Park Ridge? I doubt it. Maine South's first big test should be in Round Three against the winner of...

Stevenson at Glenbard North
This could very well be the best game of the week. (I hope I don't regret not going.) It's a pick 'em, although I'd give the edge to the home team Panthers.

7A (Is this bracket stacked, or what?) 

Glenbard West at Libertyville
The Wildcats (what's with all these cats?) could give the Hilltoppers a scare, but I expect the Glen Ellyn squad to make it to the finals (against Lincoln-Way East).

Wheaton North at Prospect
Could be 7A's answer to the Stevenson - Glenbard North game. But I'll give the advantage to the visiting Falcons and their high-powered offense.

Fenwick at Rockford Boylan
Will first-year coach Gene Nudo, above, lead the Cinderella Friars to an upset victory over defending champ Boylan? Maybe.

Lake Zurich at Hononegah
The visiting Bears will continue to roll.

Oswego at Benet
The Redwings, another Cinderella team (1-8 last year) should make it past the Panthers (more cats!).

6A

Sorry, but nobody sets my pulse racing in this bracket.

5A

Woodstock North at Marian Central
This may be the best game of all. The 7-3 Thunder beat Sterling last week, 68-20, while crosstown host Marian Central is undefeated. (I hope I'm not kicking myself Sunday morning.)

3A

Aurora Christian at Immaculate Conception
A rematch of the Eagles 47-20 victory over the Knights, but this time in Elmhurst. Will it make a difference? Probably not. But the winner should take 3A.

Thursday, November 1, 2012

There's a rule of thumb...

...in politics that whoever is ahead on the Thursday before election day usually prevails. Today, both Intrade and FiveThirtyEight have the president winning reelection.

According to Nate Silver (my emphasis):

Mr. Obama is not a sure thing, by any means. It is a close race. His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, and sometimes they will.

But it turns out that an N.F.L. team that leads by a field goal with three minutes left to go winds up winning the game 79 percent of the time. Those were Mr. Obama’s chances in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as of Wednesday: 79 percent.

Mitt Romney favors...

...privatizing FEMA, or at least returning its function to the states. From a GOP debate earlier last year (my emphasis):

"Every time you have an occasion to take something from the federal government and send it back to the states, that's the right direction. And if you can go even further, and send it back to the private sector, that's even better. Instead of thinking, in the federal budget, what we should cut, we should ask the opposite question, what should we keep?"

"Including disaster relief, though?" debate moderator John King asked Romney.

"We cannot -- we cannot afford to do those things without jeopardizing the future for our kids," Romney replied. "It is simply immoral, in my view, for us to continue to rack up larger and larger debts and pass them on to our kids, knowing full well that we'll all be dead and gone before it's paid off. It makes no sense at all."

One thing I've learned is that while something may sound sensible in the abstract, it often doesn't work in reality. 

I wonder how Romney feels about FEMA today?* Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey sure seems to love it.

* The former governor of Massachusetts won't answer any questions on the subject.

Everybody hates government...

...until they need it.

I'm pretty sure my Saturday...

...afternoon game will be Waubonsie Valley at Oak Park River Forest. That way I'll finally get to see the 9-1 Warriors (whom I missed in their big showdown with Neuqua Valley in Week Nine) and the Cinderella Huskies (who were 3-6 last year). I'll also get to see two of the buzziest running backs in the state of Illinois: Waubonsie's Austin Guido, above (1955 yards with 28 touchdowns and 8.6 yards per carry), and OPRF's Jakari Cammon, below (1296 yards with 18 touchdowns and 11.9 yards per carry). And -- and -- I'll get to watch it all in a stadium that dates back to 1924, when my parents were only five years old!

Now, as for the game itself, I can't find any common opponents and, as far as I can tell, the two programs have never faced each other. Can that be right?

But I've heard a lot about Waubonsie and its Upstate Eight rival, Neuqua, and will have seen the Wildcats play on Friday night against Bolingbrook. Will this give me any clue about Saturday's game? I'm not sure.

As for OPRF, I saw them lose to Glenbard West last year, 41-6, and would have never dreamed of seeing them play in the second round of the playoffs this year. (They were truly outclassed.) And although they lost to the Hilltoppers again this year by an even worse score, 49-0, the Huskies did beat Lyons (who knocked off Marist in Round One last week), and Hinsdale Central twice, albeit by close scores.

So do I think OPRF can pull off an upset this week over Waubonsie at home? Not really. But I want to be there just in case.

BOWG prediction: Waubonsie 38, OPRF 21.